As the great saying goes: ''those who pick top and bottom, end up broke''. However the big money is at the top or bottom. The richest commodity traders I've read about, initiate massive long/short position near the top or bottom and hold ém until they get rich.
According to charts, commodities seem to have form a major top:
Gold
http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/chart.action?symbol=GC+Z0&compareTo=&topsyms=GC&month=Z&year=2010&chartAggregation=D&chartMinutes=15&chartStyle=CANDLE&chartSize=745x550&chartDensity=LOW&userStudies=&x=60&y=6
Soybeans
http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/chart.action?symbol=ZS+F1&compareTo=&topsyms=ZS&month=F&year=2011&chartAggregation=D&chartStyle=CANDLE&chartSize=745x550&chartDensity=LOW&userStudies=&x=31&y=10
Corn
http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/chart.action?symbol=ZC+Z0&compareTo=&topsyms=ZC&month=Z&year=2010&chartAggregation=D&chartMinutes=&chartStyle=CANDLE&chartSize=745x550&chartDensity=LOW&userStudies=&x=60&y=12
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